The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers: Economic Change and Military Conflict from 1500 to 2000

This book by Paul Kennedy, an eminent scholar of diplomatic and military history, tells the story of half a millennia of great power rivalries through the rise and fall of the principal contestants for geopolitical mastery. Like the authors of Balance in this list’s first five books, the author places a premium on the explanatory power of economic capability. Great powers cannot rise without an economy that generates a large surplus that can be turned into military forces and other instruments of strategy. He also documents how economic change, as a result of internal or external factors, can undermine a great power’s economy and capacity for action. This can result in a situation in which a great power is overextended and vulnerable to the predation of rivals. This book provides rich examples of the trial and tribulations of rival powers as it narrates centuries of history. Though critics highlight its poor diagnosis of the power dynamics of the late Cold War period, this does not diminish the value of this work.