Strategy making entails grappling with an unknowable future. It requires you to reason through “if/then” propositions – “if I do X, my opponent will do Y” – that involve irreducible uncertainly. As discussed in the book Superforecasting, you cannot be certain about your forecasts. This requires you to think about the nature of uncertainty, contingency in history, and how your mind grapples with the unknowable.
First Reads
