Because any organization has to think about the future, we’re all in the business of forecasting. We participated in forecasting tournaments run by Philip Tetlock and his team — the Good Judgment Project — and learned techniques to think smartly about forecasting. This book will provide you with that grounding. You will learn to avoid the pitfall of offering “point forecasts” — a single future — and instead to think through several possible futures and their relative probabilities. You will also never think the same way after you learn the meaning of the CHAMPS KNOW acronym. If you enjoy the book, you then might want to sign up to test your skills at Good Judgment Inc.
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Foresight isn’t a mysterious gift bestowed at birth. It is the product of particular ways of thinking, of gathering information, of updating beliefs. These habits of thought can be learned and cultivated by any intelligent, thoughtful, determined person.
Guiding Questions
- From a policymaker's perspective, what are the key factors that must be present for a "red team" method of analysis to be effective?
- How should we organize information in the context of red teaming to make it a valuable exercise?