The Biggest Bluff: How I Learned to Pay Attention, Master Myself, and Win

What better way is there to learn about the challenge of uncertainty and luck than to read a book about high-stakes poker? The author, a Ph.D. in Psychology, sets out to learn No Limit Texas Hold ‘Em and play at the World Series of Poker. She explores how to play a game that requires skill but inescapably involves luck. It is a useful analogy to world politics, where you face thinking opponents and where you need to master key operational techniques, but where you cannot eliminate chance. The book teaches many lessons, but three are our favorites. First, as her mentor tells the author, “Pay attention.” Opponents, and the play of the game, are constantly giving you information. Don’t rely only on formulas but take in and process real-time data. Second, you should “control what you control.” In poker, this means, among other things, controlling your emotions. In world politics, it includes honing your skills in the use of all instruments of power. Third, more important than luck is how you prepare for and respond to chance. How do you control your losses when your luck is bad? How do you maximize your gains when luck turns your way? Disciplined contingency thinking is the key.