Latin America

Overview

Although not as geopolitically critical to the United States as it once was, Latin America remains an important region for American policymaking. Once a battleground of great powers during most of the Cold War, Latin America has since become a more sovereign and inward-looking entity. The revolutionary fervor that once gripped the region has mostly since faded, and apart from enduring authoritarianism in countries like Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua, democracy, albeit with high rates of corruption, has held firm throughout most of Latin America. Countries once ruled by military dictatorships have thrown off the yoke of the juntas, and communist guerillas no longer stalk the jungles of Central and South America in great numbers.

However, since the end of the Cold War, Latin America has shown that democracy is not the only factor needed for societal flourishing. Despite attempts from Latin American leaders to create stronger regional identity, connections, and prosperity through international organizations such as the Union of South American Nations (UNASUR), Latin America remains fractured and wracked with high rates of inequality, corruption, and crime. The Southern Common Market, or Mercosur, between Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, and Uruguay has enabled a degree of free trade in the region, yet Mercosur’s current state is a far cry from its once lofty goal to unite all of Latin America in a free trade zone. Apart from some industrial success in Mexico as a result of ‘nearshoring’ trade agreements with the United States, namely the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMACA), Latin America has also been mostly unable to break free from the resource curse and remains an economic bloc largely dependent on climate-unfriendly resource extraction.

For the United States, these problems have serious implications. Although presidential administrations no longer confront the choice of either funding friendly authoritarian regimes or watching Latin American nations fall to communism, modern policymakers cast wary eyes upon the engagement many countries in the region have with China. Over the past decades of its rapid economic growth, China has become hungrier and hungrier for raw materials, which Latin American countries are all too happy to provide. This interplay induced Chinese investments in key industries—such as lithium extraction in Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina—and certain countries, most recently Honduras, to cut ties with Taiwan and instead bolster them with the mainland.

Also of note to American policymakers is the rate of migration from Latin America to the United States. Partisan politics aside, it is certain that as instability, violence, and stark wealth inequalities in Latin America continue, millions of asylum seekers will be driven northwards. These flows of mass migration will certainly bring debates over how immigration connects to national security and identity even more to the fore.

Finally, recent developments in the region present new challenges and opportunities for the United States. In December 2023, Venezuelan leaders and voters alike declared their country’s rightful territorial sovereignty over neighboring state Guyana’s oil-rich Essequibo region, which Venezuela has claimed since the late 1800s. Fears abound that this move threatens a military conflict between the two states, something which would further destabilize the region. Just prior to this, in November 2023, firebrand anarcho-libertarian economist Javier Milei won the presidential election in Argentina. Milei now seeks to dramatically reshape his country by dollarizing the economy, canceling Argentina’s planned accession to the BRICS economic bloc, and building closer ties with the West through support of Ukraine and Israel.

Despite its marginalization in U.S. geopolitical strategies over the past few decades, Latin America is a region that will become increasingly important to U.S. grand strategists. Policymakers must decide not only how to handle increased rates of migration from Latin America but also how to ensure both that Chinese influence does not become dominant in the region and that democracy and the partnerships therefrom remain steadfast. Through measures such as ‘friendshoring’ heavy industry to amicable Latin American countries or joint security cooperation, there is hope, however, for a bright future in relations between the United States and Latin America.

FOR SPeaker events

  • What should be the American response to growing Chinese influence in Latin America?

  • How should American policymakers conceptualize immigration through the lens of national security?

  • What are ways in which the United States could work with Latin America on stabilization and anti-corruption efforts?

  • How can the United States ensure that China does not come to dominate resource extraction efforts in the Lithium Triangle (Chile, Bolivia, and Argentina)?

  • How should the United States balance concern for climate change with the economic incentives of resource extraction in Latin America?

  • Is the concept of nearshoring industry in Latin America beneficial to American national interests? If so, is Latin America even capable of serving as a replacement for Chinese manufacturing?

  • How should the United States respond to Venezuela’s desire to annex Essequibo?

  • How could the United States build relations with Argentina following Milei’s election?

  • How should the United States relate with the remaining authoritarian regimes in Latin America?

FOR ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS

FOR BOOK CLUBS

  • Brands, Hal. Latin America’s Cold War.

  • Cardoso, Fernando Henrique and Faletto, Enzo. Dependency and Development in Latin America.

  • Haber, Stephen. How Latin America Fell Behind: Essays on the Economic Histories of Mexico and Brazil, 1800-1914.

  • Krauze, Enrique. Redeemers: Ideas and Power in Latin America.

  • Reid, Michael. Forgotten Continent: The Battle for Latin America’s Soul.

  • Williamson, Edwin. The Penguin History of Latin America.

  • Weeks, Gregory. Understanding Latin American Politics.

    Interested in starting a reading group for your chapter? If so, the books above are all excellent selections. Find a link to our reading group application below.

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