Middle East and North Africa
overview
The most fraught region for American diplomacy in recent memory is unquestionably the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This region has experienced a great deal of political realignment and change in the wake of the U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya, which toppled dictators hostile to U.S. interests. Additionally, although the revolutionary wave of the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, which resulted in the overthrow of four governments, has crested, its wake still ripples in periodic liberal reform demonstrations throughout the region and in ongoing civil conflicts in Libya, Yemen, and Syria.
After so many years of conflict, instability in the MENA is enduring. The rise and fall of ISIS in particular laid bare a thorny tangle of tribal and ethnic relationships that are not easily discernible on national political maps and raised new questions about what role the United States can and should play in the Middle East. The terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas against Israel in October 2023 and the subsequent Israeli response have also complicated American calculations, forcing the United States to consider whether it must maintain a more significant presence in the region than anticipated in order to protect allies and prevent further escalation.
A major development that has unfolded primarily as a result of Israel crippling Hezbollah and the ouster of the Assad regime in Syria is the devastation of Iran’s proxy network from the Zagros Mountains to the Mediterranean Sea. The once-feared ‘Axis of Resistance’ is now a shadow of its former self—Hezbollah’s grip over Lebanon is severely weakened, Iran’s forward defense strategy in Syria is completely ruined, and Hamas has suffered devastating losses since October 7, 2023. A major benefactor of this realignment is Saudi Arabia, which previously was engaged in a contest of regional primacy with Iran. While this competition mellowed following a Chinese-brokered rapprochement between the two states, the world can expect Saudi Arabia to take advantage of Iran’s weakness in the coming months and years, potentially through the expansion of the Abraham Accords upon the conclusion of the Israel-Hamas War.
Further complexifying the geopolitical balance in the MENA region are Russia and Turkey. The fall of the Assad regime in Syria greatly weakened Russia’s position in the MENA while strengthening Turkey’s. The country has been emboldened in its fight against Kurdish militias in the region and may also win influence dominance with the new Syrian regime. Meanwhile, Russia maintains its close relationship with Iran, while Turkey strengthens its ‘one nation, two states’ relationship with Azerbaijan—an Iranian adversary. Despite a mutual autocratic understanding between Turkey’s Erdoğan and Russia’s Putin, the two countries’ long-term strategic goals continue to diverge from one another.
A final and increasingly active player in the MENA is China. Aside from the rapprochement the CCP negotiated between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China is also increasingly active in securing partnerships and investments across the Arabian Peninsula. As the world’s largest importer of oil, China recognizes the importance of maintaining stable relations with the oil-rich nations of the region and free access of tankers bound for Chinese ports out of the Strait of Hormuz.
With conflict in the region enduring and great powers vying for regional influence, the MENA is likely to remain a crucial front for American grand strategy despite hopes for a clean Pivot to Asia.
For Speaker Events
What is the most effective way to maintain peace in the Middle East?
How should the United States respond to Iran’s nuclear ambitions?
Should the United States support liberal democratic reform movements in the Middle East?
Does Turkey’s drift from liberal democratic values merit its expulsion from NATO?
How should the United States approach its relationship to Saudi Arabia?
Should the United States pivot from the Middle East?
What are the risks of withdrawing U.S. forces from the Middle East?
Does the conflict in Yemen threaten U.S. national security interests?
What is the value of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, and should the United States continue its robust support of Israel?
FOR roundtable discussions
“Joint Regional Strategy: Middle East and North Africa.” Department of State. February 4, 2022.
“The Day After Assad: How the Syrian Dictator’s Stunning Fall Will Scramble the Balance of Power in the Middle East.” Natasha Hall and Joost Hiltermann. Foreign Affairs. December 9, 2024.
“America’s Middle East Imperative: Contain Iran.” Reuel Marc Gerecht and Ray Takeyh. Wall Street Journal. October 13, 2023.
“The Age of Great Power Distraction.” Michael Kimmage and Hanna Notte. Foreign Affairs. October 12, 2023.
“Erdogan the Survivor.” Henri J. Barkey. Foreign Affairs. August 17, 2023.
“Order After Empire: The Roots of Instability in the Middle East.” Robert D. Kaplan. Foreign Affairs. August 8, 2023.
“The Middle East in a Multipolar Era.” Michael Singh. Foreign Affairs. December 7, 2022.
“Overmatch.” Michael Doran and Can Kasapoğlu. Hudson Institute. November 2, 2022.
FOR books clubs
Doran, Michael. Ike's Gamble: America's Rise to Dominance in the Middle East.
Edelman, Eric. Revolution and Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy Toward Iran.
Hourani, Albert. A History of the Arab Peoples.
Lewis, Bernard. The Emergence of Modern Turkey.
Mead, Walter Russell. The Arc of a Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People.
Oren, Michael. Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East.
Pollack, Kenneth. Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness.
Rubin, Michael. Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes.
Takeyh, Ray. The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty.
Interested in starting a reading group for your chapter? If so, the books above are all excellent selections. Find a link to our reading group application below.