Middle East and North Africa

overview

The most fraught region for American diplomacy in recent memory is unquestionably the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This region has experienced a great deal of political realignment and change in the wake of the U.S. interventions in Iraq and Libya, which toppled dictators hostile to U.S. interests. Additionally, although the revolutionary wave of the Arab Spring in the early 2010s, which resulted in the overthrow of four governments, has crested, its wake still ripples in periodic liberal reform demonstrations throughout the region and in ongoing civil conflicts in Libya, Yemen, and Syria. 

After so many years of conflict, instability in the MENA is enduring. The rise and fall of ISIS in particular laid bare a thorny tangle of tribal and ethnic relationships that are not easily discernible on national political maps and raised new questions about what role the United States can and should play in the Middle East. The terrorist attacks perpetrated by Hamas against Israel in October 2023 and the subsequent Israeli response have also complicated American calculations, forcing the United States to consider whether it must maintain a more significant presence in the region than anticipated in order to protect allies and prevent further escalation.

All of these developments take place within an ongoing competition for regional primacy between Iran, a longtime U.S. rival persistent in its funding of terror groups and its pursuit of nuclear weapons, and Saudi Arabia, an illiberal U.S. partner that has posed ideological challenges for policymakers concerned with the humanitarian impact of U.S. aid. Although this struggle may have temporarily mellowed following a Chinese-brokered rapprochement between the two states, the Iran-Saudi competition continues in destructive proxy conflicts in Iraq and Yemen and has led to new U.S.-brokered partnerships between Israel and Sunni states aiming to form a more unified bloc against Iran. The now inflamed Israeli-Palestinian question, however, complicates any further normalization between Israel and Arab states.

Further complexifying the geopolitical balance in the MENA region are Russia and Turkey. As Russia maintains its alliance with the Assad regime in Syria and expands its relationship with Iran, Turkey grows increasingly bold in skirmishes with Kurdish militants in Syria and Iraq and strengthens its ‘one nation, two states’ relationship with Azerbaijan—an Iranian adversary. Despite a mutual autocratic understanding between Turkey’s Erdoğan and Russia’s Putin, the two countries’ long-term strategic goals continue to diverge from one another. 

A final and increasingly active player in the MENA is China. Aside from the rapprochement the CCP negotiated between Iran and Saudi Arabia, China is also increasingly active in securing partnerships and investments across the Arabian Peninsula. As the world’s largest importer of oil, China recognizes the importance of maintaining stable relations with the oil-rich nations of the region and free access of tankers bound for Chinese ports out of the Strait of Hormuz. 

With conflict in the region enduring and great powers vying for regional influence, the MENA is likely to remain a crucial front for American grand strategy despite hopes for a clean Pivot to Asia.

For Speaker Events

  • What is the most effective way to maintain peace in the Middle East?

  • How should the United States respond to Iran’s nuclear ambitions?

  • Should the United States support liberal democratic reform movements in the Middle East?

  • Does Turkey’s drift from liberal democratic values merit its expulsion from NATO?

  • How should the United States approach its relationship to Saudi Arabia?

  • Should the United States pivot from the Middle East?

  • What are the risks of withdrawing U.S. forces from the Middle East?

  • Does the conflict in Yemen threaten U.S. national security interests?

  • What is the value of the U.S.-Israeli relationship, and should the United States continue its robust support of Israel?

FOR roundtable discussions

FOR books clubs

  • Doran, Michael. Ike's Gamble: America's Rise to Dominance in the Middle East.

  • Edelman, Eric. Revolution and Aftermath: Forging a New Strategy Toward Iran.

  • Hourani, Albert. A History of the Arab Peoples.

  • Lewis, Bernard. The Emergence of Modern Turkey.

  • Mead, Walter Russell. The Arc of a Covenant: The United States, Israel, and the Fate of the Jewish People.

  • Oren, Michael. Six Days of War: June 1967 and the Making of the Modern Middle East.

  • Pollack, Kenneth. Armies of Sand: The Past, Present, and Future of Arab Military Effectiveness.

  • Rubin, Michael. Dancing with the Devil: The Perils of Engaging Rogue Regimes.

  • Takeyh, Ray. The Last Shah: America, Iran, and the Fall of the Pahlavi Dynasty.

    Interested in starting a reading group for your chapter? If so, the books above are all excellent selections. Find a link to our reading group application below.

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