South and Central Asia

overview

If the most important development of the post-Cold War geopolitical landscape has been the rise of China, its regional neighbors have been the first to notice. In response to the CCP’s rising bellicosity, several states have been forced to look inward to adapt to both the shifting power dynamics of the region and the new risks and opportunities that come from China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Meanwhile, across the Pacific, American policymakers wrestle with questions about how to navigate a region in which the rules of engagement are in flux following a hasty withdrawal from Afghanistan that led immediately to the Taliban’s return to power.

Central Asia in particular remains a challenging region for American diplomacy. While most of the region was previously part of the Soviet Union and maintains close security and economic connections with Russia, countries like Kazakhstan have broken with Russia on key issues such as the war in Ukraine, suggesting potential diplomatic inroads exist for the United States. Arguably more likely, however, is an increase in Chinese influence in the region through the Belt and Road Initiative and shared authoritarian affinity with most of the leaders in the region.  

By contrast, in South Asia, the United States has several opportunities to develop its relationships with regional coalition partners that might serve as potential counterweights to China. India, the world’s largest democracy and a rising regional power, presents a strong opportunity to expand the Asian coalition. The country has multiple border disputes with China and is increasingly wary of Chinese influence in both neighboring Sri Lanka and among the island nations across the Indian Ocean. In part to shore up its position against China, India joined the re-established Quadrilateral Security Dialogue with the United States, Japan and Australia in 2017, deepening ties with other democratic states. 

Complicating the creation of a stable South Asian coalition is India’s movement towards illiberalism under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his nationalist BJP party. Lack of action by the Modi government to combat violence against members of India’s Muslim population, which makes up about 15 percent of the country with around 200 million people, discomfits many Western policymakers. Despite certain ideological dissimilarities, India maintains a level of goodwill with developing countries both in the region and elsewhere, which could be useful to Washington in creating a coalition to contain China with other states like Indonesia that differ from the United States in many ways.

One state India might not be able to win over to an anti-China coalition is Pakistan, India’s greatest rival. Once a closer ally to the United States than India, Pakistan’s relationship with the United States has since become more complex. During the War on Terror, Pakistan played an important role in allowing American military access into Afghanistan, yet all the while elements of the Pakistani military actively supported the Taliban. Since the withdrawal from Afghanistan, U.S.-Pakistani relations have been cold, particularly as China’s massive Belt and Road Initiative investments in Pakistan progress.

Other countries in the region have seen their relationships with the United States improve rather than degrade over time. The Philippines and Vietnam have been receptive to security cooperation and grow increasingly important for U.S. regional strategy. Both countries have received hundreds of millions of dollars in security assistance from the United States in recent years, and the Philippines agreed in early 2023 to host four new American military bases across the country. Although both nations have had less than friendly relations with the United States in the past, the Philippines and Vietnam now recognize the direct threat Chinese expansionism poses to their claims over territorial waters in the South China Sea. The United States also maintains a mutual defense treaty with Thailand, another player in the region.

Ultimately, the effects of the Pivot to Asia are increasingly felt throughout South and Central Asia. The question now is whether, and how, the United States can rally allies and partners to her cause.

For Speaker Events

  • What role can India play in countering the rise of China?

  • Will greater engagement with India jeopardize U.S. interests in Pakistan?

  • Should U.S. policy towards Kashmir be driven by values or national interests in Asia?

  • How do strategic and economic interests both coincide and conflict with democratic values in the U.S.-India relationship?

  • What is the U.S. position in Central Asia after the withdrawal from Afghanistan?

  • How can the United States best develop its partnerships in the Indo-Pacific region?

  • Should the United States increase security assistance to non-treaty partners such as Vietnam and the Philippines to counter China in the region?

  • How can the United States ensure that the Strait of Malacca remains open to Western naval traffic in the event of a conflict with China?

  • How should the United States regard China’s heavy investment through the Belt and Road Initiative in countries like Pakistan?

For roundtable discussions

For book clubs

  • Cohen, Stephen Philip. India: Emerging Power.

  • Frankopan, Peter. The Silk Roads: A New History of the World.

  • Kaplan, Robert. Monsoon: The Indian Ocean and the Future of American Power.

  • Markey, Daniel. China’s Western Horizon: Beijing and the New Geopolitics of Eurasia.

  • Rolland, Nadege. China's Eurasian Century: Political & Strategic Implications of the Belt and Road.

  • Starr, Frederick S. Lost Enlightenment: Central Asia’s Golden Age from the Arab Conquest to Tamerlane.

  • Starr, Frederick S. & Cornell, Svante. The Long Game on the Silk Road: US and EU Strategy for Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Interested in starting a reading group for your chapter? If so, the books above are all excellent selections. Find a link to our reading group application below.

Subscribe to Our Newsletter

1750 H STREET NW, WASHINGTON, DC 20006 | INFO@HAMSOC.ORG