Sub-Saharan Africa

Overview

Emerging from the warlordism and chaos of the Cold War, sub-Saharan Africa has seen numerous positive developments over the past few decades. Enduring yet imperfect democracies have cropped up in Ghana, Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, and South Africa; 1994 saw the end of the racist apartheid regime in South Africa; and the rate of absolute poverty in the region has fallen significantly. 

Unfortunately, however, most of sub-Saharan Africa grapples with significant problems. Although the rate of absolute poverty has fallen across the region, the number of people living in poverty in general has risen due to Africa’s high birth rates. This misfortune is compounded by several factors, including the lack of well-paying jobs, weak rule of law in many countries, and flawed or absent democracy. In such an environment, the lucrative field of violent conflict thrives. Places like the Democratic Republic of the Congo suffer from grinding, low-intensity conflicts with periodic bouts of major chaos, such as the February 2024 advance of the rebel group M23 that forced thousands from their homes. This cycle of violence is fed by the multitude of weak authoritarian regimes across the continent, which, riddled with corruption, are often direct or indirect parties to the various conflicts in the region.

This environment is extremely challenging for American foreign policy. Although the United States and other Western countries send billions of dollars of foreign aid to sub-Saharan countries each year, the total amount of aid, much of which is stolen by corrupt elites, is eclipsed by the yearly capital flight from the region by around $40 billion. The United States has also had trouble articulating and acting upon a pro-democracy agenda in the region, as the desire to combat terrorism in places like the Horn of Africa often outweighs concerns over supplying authoritarian governments with significant military aid.

Although American foreign policy engagement in sub-Saharan Africa is difficult, it is nonetheless increasingly important. The population of the region, set to account for one-third of the world population by 2100, is growing three times faster than the rest of the world. Even if sub-Saharan Africa remains poor relative to the developed world, its sheer number of people will nevertheless enable massive economic growth. Sub-Saharan Africa is also the region of the world most vulnerable to climate change. As this phenomenon continues, high numbers of Africans with no other recourse will be driven from their homes towards places like Europe and the United States, creating significant foreign policy implications.

Most relevant to American strategists in the short term is the influence of Russia and China in the region. Military coups have rocked countries in the Sahel, the region between the Sahara and the Congo, in recent years. These junta governments have found a willing partner in PMC Wagner, the infamous Russian mercenary company, for regime security, in exchange for Russian rights to resource extraction in the region. Wagner is buoyed by genuine popular support in many African countries resulting from effective Russian mis- and disinformation operations and Wagner’s more active approach to fighting terrorist elements, in contrast to French and German military missions constrained by rules of engagement. 

Sub-Saharan Africa has also been a major target for China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Capitalizing on Africa’s debilitating infrastructure deficit, the CCP has been able to curry favor with many African governments by offering loans for public works projects not subject to the same environmental and human rights standards set by Western institutions. Through growing numbers of Confucius Institutes, the CCP has also sought to expand its soft power influence in the region. Finally, and perhaps most crucially, Chinese firms now own and operate the majority of cobalt mines in the Congo, the location for half of the world’s reserves of the crucial rare earth metal.

Over the coming years, the importance of sub-Saharan Africa in American foreign policy will grow. From the region’s mineral wealth to its booming population growth to the influence of adversaries like China and Russia, there is much at stake for the United States and her allies in this region of the world.

FOR Speaker events

  • Should the United States increase its foreign aid sent to sub-Saharan countries?

  • What is the best way the United States can counter Russian and Chinese influence in sub-Saharan Africa?

  • How significant to American foreign policy are concerns over climate change-driven migrations from Africa?

  • In what ways can the United States effectively promote democracy in sub-Saharan Africa? Is this a priority for American foreign policy?

  • How important is propagating a pro-American message in sub-Saharan Africa considering the effectiveness of Russian and Chinese soft power in the region?

FOR ROUNDTABLE DISCUSSIONS


FOR BOOK CLUBS

  • Cooper, Frederick. Africa since 1940: The Past of the Present.

  • Falola, Toyin and Heaton, Matthew. A History of Nigeria.

  • Gourevitch, Philip. We Wish to Inform You That Tomorrow We Will be Killed With Our Families.

  • Hochschild, Adam. King Leopold’s Ghost.

  • Ilife, John. Africans: The History of a Continent.

  • Radelet, Steven. Emerging Africa: How 17 Countries Are Leading the Way.

    Interested in starting a reading group for your chapter? If so, the books above are all excellent selections. Find a link to our reading group application below.

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